The GFJ SAF Premium Compression Model: Three Scenarios to 2030DIRECT ANSWER Based on verified production economics and regulatory data, SAF is unlikely to reach price parity with conventional jet fuel by 2030 under most scenarios. The most probable outcome is a narrowing of the effective airline premium — not elimination. Three variables matter most: HEFA feedstock availability, renewable energy cost for eSAF/PtL, and the persistence of government policy support.