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India’s Renewable Energy Surge: Can the Power Grid Stay Reliable Amid Rapid Expansion?

Can India’s Renewable Energy Surge Deliver Reliable Power Without Grid Collapse?


By the Green Fuel Journal News Analysis Division          Author Credit: News Analysis Team — Green Fuel Journal           Date of Review: December 24, 2025



News Summary:


Overview: India’s Renewable Energy Growth and Grid Reliability Concerns


India’s renewable energy expansion has accelerated sharply, placing the country among the global leaders in installed capacity. According to The Economic Times, the nation has crossed 256 GW of renewable energy capacity and achieved its nationally determined contribution (NDC) target of 50% electricity capacity from non-fossil sources ahead of schedule.

Despite this progress, the article raises concerns about India’s ability to convert this capacity into a reliable and stable power supply without critical upgrades to grid infrastructure, storage systems, and flexible generation sources.


Power lines stretch across an open field during sunset, with silhouettes of pylons against a gradient sky of orange and blue.

The commentary highlights challenges such as transmission bottlenecks, high solar curtailment, underdeveloped battery storage, and the need for firm low-carbon generation like nuclear.

The author argues that without coordinated action in grid modernization and system planning, India’s renewable surge may fall short of delivering dependable power. The Economic Times


Expert Analysis

India’s renewable energy story is one of ambition and complexity. The rapid rise in solar and wind installations reflects strong policy signals, cost-competitive auctions, and investor interest. However, capacity growth alone does not guarantee grid reliability — a point underscored in the commentary by former NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant. The article frames the problem as systemic rather than isolated, focusing on three interlinked dimensions:


a. Grid Infrastructure and Transmission Gaps Despite the scale of renewable projects, India’s transmission expansion is lagging. According to the commentary, only 8,830 circuit km of transmission lines were commissioned last year against a target of 15,253 ckm, representing a 42% deficit.

This delay has left over 50 GW of renewable capacity stranded, particularly in solar-rich states like Gujarat and Rajasthan, contributing to congestion and curtailment losses. The Economic Times


Independent reporting on grid performance supports this context: recent data shows solar curtailment rates rising as the grid struggles to absorb daytime peaks, with some days seeing as much as 40% of solar output curtailed due to inflexibilities in dispatch and transmission capacity. The Economic Times


b. Inadequate Storage and Flexibility Renewable energy sources are variable by nature. Without adequate storage, surplus generation during midday cannot be reliably delivered to evening or night demand, forcing grid operators to back down renewable output or rely on fossil-based peaking plants. India has made early steps toward battery energy storage systems (BESS), but only a small share of capacity is operational. System-level integration — where storage participates in dispatch and ancillary services — is still nascent. The Economic Times 


This is consistent with research highlighting the essential role of storage for reliable high-renewable grids, as well as the need for advanced control strategies to manage variability and frequency stability. ScienceDirect


c. Firm Low-Carbon Generation and System Management The article calls for a diversified strategy that retains firm low-carbon generation, notably nuclear power. India’s nuclear plants, while a minor percentage of installed capacity (~1.3%), contribute disproportionately to generation due to high capacity factors. Policy reforms like the SHANTI Bill aim to attract private investment into nuclear, potentially boosting round-the-clock clean power. The Economic Times


Finally, the piece emphasizes the role of advanced digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI) in grid operations — particularly for improved forecasting, congestion management, and predictive maintenance — although deployment of smart meters and core digital infrastructure remains slow.


Key Takeaways

  • Installed capacity growth does not ensure reliability: India’s renewable capacity is rising faster than its grid’s ability to use it reliably, creating risks of curtailment and stranded projects.

  • The Economic Times

  • Transmission shortfalls remain critical: A 42% shortfall in transmission expansion exacerbates regional bottlenecks, particularly in states with high renewable potential. The Economic Times

  • Energy storage is essential but under deployed: BESS capacity tends to be tendered, not yet operational at scale or integrated into market dispatch systems. The Economic Times

  • Firm low-carbon sources like nuclear matter for reliability: Nuclear’s stable output can offset renewable variability and reduce dependence on fossil plants for balancing. The Economic Times

  • Digital grid tools and AI are underutilized: Enhanced forecasting and real-time control systems can lower operational costs and improve reliability but require faster rollout. The Economic Times


Future Outlook & Implications


Short-Term (2026–2027): Grid congestion and curtailment may persist unless transmission planning and execution accelerate. Implementation of grid discipline rules and stricter forecasting requirements will begin to shape market behavior for renewables and storage alike. LinkedIn


Mid-Term (2028–2032): If India expands energy storage meaningfully and builds flexible, fast-ramping assets, the grid will better manage variability. The integration of hybrid renewable-storage plants and market reforms that enable storage to participate in ancillary services will be crucial for reliability.


Long-Term (2033–2040): Achieving an 80% renewable share by mid-century will require systemic transformation — including grid planning that anticipates stochastic renewable patterns, demand flexibility mechanisms, and sector coupling (e.g., power-to-green hydrogen). Research indicates that without storage and demand response, high renewable penetration can challenge frequency stability and inertia support. ScienceDirect


Policymakers will need to balance rapid capacity growth with grid resilience, reliability standards, and market integration structures that align incentives across generation, transmission, and storage.

Recommendations / Expert View

  • Accelerate Transmission Development: Prioritize funding, permitting, and execution of overdue transmission projects, especially in renewable-rich regions.

  • Scale Storage Deployment: Shift from tendering to rapid deployment and market integration of utility-scale storage as a system asset.

  • Enhance Market Signals: Implement structured grid discipline and ancillary service markets that reward flexibility and reliability contributions. LinkedIn

  • Promote Diverse Firm Generation: Encourage nuclear and other low-carbon firm capacity to provide reliable baseload as renewables grow.

  • Strengthen Digital Grid Tools: Invest in smart meters, advanced forecasting, and grid management platforms with AI to reduce curtailment and optimize dispatch.

  • Stakeholder Coordination: Align federal, state, and utility planning to ensure coherent sequencing of generation, transmission, and storage investments.


References

References:

  • Can India’s renewable energy surge deliver reliable power or will the grid collapse? — The Economic Times, Dec 23, 2025 (Opinion by Amitabh Kant) The Economic Times

  • India’s power grid struggles to absorb soaring solar supply — Economic Times renewables news The Economic Times

  • Debanjan et al., Renewable Energy Scenario in India — ScienceDirect analysis ScienceDirect

  • India’s clean energy sector grid discipline analysis — LinkedIn industry summary LinkedIn


Disclaimer: 

The analysis above is an independent expert interpretation based on publicly available information. It does not represent the views of any individual author cited or their affiliated institutions. All efforts have been made to ensure accuracy and objectivity.

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